Waterbird Species Are Highly Sensitive to Wetland Traits: Simulation-Based Conservation Strategies for the Birds of the Sicilian Wetlands (Italy).

In this study, we (a) formulated a general hypothesis about how wetland (functional and structural) traits influence avian diversity, (b) turned this hypothesis into a non-parametric Bayesian network, (c) disentangled the direct and indirect effects of the variables influencing waterbird species, and (d) simulated the changes expected to the levels of avian diversity as a result of numerous counterfactual and management scenarios. We applied our framework to the Sicilian wetlands as a whole; then, we downscaled simulations locally to a wetland of particular interest (Pantano Bruno). We found that (1) waterbird species are highly sensitive to wetland traits; (2) wetland traits have both direct and indirect effects upon alpha avian diversity; (3) the direct and indirect effects of wetland traits can be contrasting; (4) water level fluctuations (benefit), diversions (cost), and salinity (cost) are key factors for waterbird conservation; (5) these wetlands have the potential for hosting a level of alpha avian diversity that is double the baseline (from 19 to 38 species); (6) these wetlands are prone to ecological collapse if all traits deteriorate (from 19 to 6 species per wetland); and (7) the ecological information gained at the regional scale can be properly downscaled to the local scale to make inferences on single wetlands.

Simulation Modeling Unveils the Unalike Effects of Alternative Strategies for Waterbird Conservation in the Coastal Wetlands of Sardinia (Italy).

The Sardinian wetlands (Italy) act as stopover sites for many migratory birds along the central eastern Mediterranean bird flyway. These wetlands are now severely threatened by human activities and climate change. Accordingly, we built a simulation framework to predict the effects of several counterfactual and management scenarios on the level of avian diversity in the coastal wetlands of Sardinia. We found that the alpha avian diversity (i.e., the mean number of avian species per wetland) is destined to (a) decrease due to the most likely increase in water salinity, water discharges, and tourism pressure; and (b) halve (from 14.9 to 7.4, with 9 wetlands out of 22 predicted to host only between two and five waterbird species) in the worst possible scenario. However, the results also showed that proper management strategies could prevent and reverse such outcomes. Restrictions on tourism activities, water desalination, prevention of future saltwater intrusions, and the prohibition of water discharges could markedly favor the avian diversity in these wetlands, with an expected increase in the alpha avian diversity from 14.9 to 24.8 (and 10 wetlands out of 22 predicted to host from 29 to 32 waterbird species) in the best possible scenario. The importance of our results could be emphasized in the management plans of these important wetlands, most of which belong to the Natura 2000 network.

Ecological barriers mediate spatiotemporal shifts of bird communities at a continental scale.

Species' range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shift in response to climate change. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in climate change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980s and their compositional best match in the 2010s and modeled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coastlines and elevation having the strongest influence. Our results underscore the relevance of combining ecological barriers and community shift projections for identifying the forces hindering community adjustments under global change. Notably, due to (macro)ecological barriers, communities are not able to track their climatic niches, which may lead to drastic changes, and potential losses, in community compositions in the future.

Overlap and Segregation among Multiple 3D Home Ranges: A Non-Pairwise Metric with Demonstrative Application to the Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni.

In this study we solved the issue of measuring the degree of overlap/segregation among an arbitrarily large number (n ≥ 2) of 3D volumetric home ranges (i.e., x, y, and hg; where hg is height above ground level) for the first time. For this purpose, we introduced the novel non-pairwise index MVOI (Multiple Volumetric Overlap Index) and its complement to 100 MVSI (Multiple Volumetric Segregation Index). Regardless of the number of 3D volumetric home ranges, the MVOI and MVSI generate a single score of overlap/segregation between 0 and 100, making ecological interpretation much easier and more meaningful when compared to n × n pairwise overlap indices. As a case study, we applied the MVOI and MVSI to 12,081 GPS points of five lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni) during the nesting period at Santeramo in Colle (Apulia region; Italy) in an area with the most elevated density of lesser kestrels in urban colonies worldwide. The 3D volumetric home ranges ranged between 1.79 km3 and 8.19 km3. We found that the tracked birds had different vertical profiles, possibly to limit intraspecific competition, resulting in a 3D home range overlap that was only 61.1% of the 2D overlap and 52.8% of the probabilistic one.

Measuring the Degree of Overlap and Segregation among Multiple Probabilistic Home Ranges: A New Index with Illustrative Application to the Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni.

Home range overlap/segregation has several important applications to wildlife conservation and management. In this work, we first address the issue of measuring the degree of overlap/segregation among an arbitrarily large number (i.e., n ≥ 2) of probabilistic animal home ranges (i.e., utilization distributions). This subject matter has recently been solved for home ranges measured as polygons (e.g., percent minimum convex polygons and multinuclear cores) but not yet for probabilistic ones. Accordingly, we introduce a novel index named the PGOI (probabilistic general overlap index), and its complement, the PGSI (probabilistic general segregation index), an index for computation of probabilistic home range overlap/segregation at individual, population and species levels. Whatever the number of probabilistic home ranges, the PGOI returns a single score ranging in the [0, 100] interval. We applied the PGOI to five lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni) at Santeramo in Colle (Apulia region; Southern Italy) as a case study. Our new index can be applied to any animal species and to home ranges derived from any type of probabilistic home range estimator.

A new method for broad-scale modeling and projection of plant assemblages under climatic, biotic, and environmental cofiltering.

There is increasing interest in broad-scale analysis, modeling, and prediction of the distribution and composition of plant species assemblages under climatic, environmental, and biotic filtering, particularly for conservation purposes. We devised a method (broad-scale analysis & modeling of plant assemblages under climatic-biotic-environmental co-filtering, BAM-PACC) for reliably predicting the impact of climate change on arbitrarily large assemblages of plant communities, while also considering competing biotic and abiotic factors. When applied to a large set of plant communities in the Swiss Alps, BAM-PACC explained presences/absences of 175 plant species in 608 plots with >87% cross-validated accuracy, predicted decreases in α, ß, and γ diversity by 2040 under both moderate and extreme climate scenarios, and identified plant species likely to be favored/disfavored by climate change. BAM-PACC also revealed the importance of topography and soil in determining the distribution of plant species and their response to climate change, and showed the overriding importance of temperature extremes rather than averages. BAM-PACC was able to address a number of challenging research problems, such as scaling to large numbers of species, exploiting species relationships, dealing with species rarity, and overwhelming proportion of absences in the presence/absence matrix. By handling hundreds/thousands of plants and plots simultaneously over large areas, BAM-PACC can help broad-scale conservation of plant species under climate change, as it allows species that require urgent conservation planning and policies (assisted migration, seed conservation, ex-situ conservation) to be detected and prioritized. BAM-PACC can also increase the practicality of assisted colonization of plant species, by helping to prevent ill-advised introduction of plant species with limited future survival probability in a certain area. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Preserving the Mediterranean bird flyways: Assessment and prioritization of 38 main wetlands under human and climate threats in Sardinia and Sicily (Italy).

Wetlands provide a wide range of ecosystem services, including supplying the food and shelter for a rich assemblage of waterbirds and providing the stopover sites that allow birds to make migratory journeys. Human impact and the ongoing climate change are however reducing the ability of wetlands to provide such important services. Through field surveys, GIS analyses and climate projections, we assessed the status of, and threats to, 38 largest wetlands belonging to the Mediterranean bird flyways in Sardinia and Sicily (Italy). We then combined ten decision criteria about avifaunal diversity and human/climate threats in order to prioritize the studied wetlands from most to least worthy of urgent interventions. Results showed that the main wetlands of these two regions have distinct demands with regard to the kind of actions required, going from the mitigation of tourism pressure to the prevention of climate-induced water shortage in summer. Furthermore, clear priorities for interventions emerged in both regions. Our study has direct implications for managers and researchers attempting to assess wetland conditions and set conservation priorities, thus offering a tool for deciding urgent interventions on the main stopover sites along the Mediterranean bird flyways.

Climate change will seriously impact bird species dwelling above the treeline: A prospective study for the Italian Alps.

High mountain systems are predicted to be especially vulnerable to the impact of climate change, with the climatically-constrained tree limit rapidly shifted upslope. In turn, the impact of upward treeline migration on mountain-dwelling bird species is expected to significantly reduce habitat suitability. We developed the first projection of the expected climate-driven rise of the whole treeline (19,256km) of the Italian Alps. The study area extends over 20,700km2, ranging over 550km in longitude and 320km in latitude. We then investigated how much the expected treeline rise will induce a) shrinking and shifting of the elevation range and b) loss in suitable habitat for the flagship species rock ptarmigan, an alpine bird species dwelling above the treeline and, similarly to many other alpine species, highly vulnerable to treeline rise. We also investigated the potential gain in suitable habitat for rock ptarmigan due to the climate-driven upshift in the uppermost thermal limit. At lower altitudes (1500-1600m a.s.l.), the average expected upshift in the current treeline resulted in 195, 274 and 354m over the short (2010-2039), medium (2040-2069) and long term (2070-2099) respectively. Above 2400m a.s.l., it was less than 30m even in the long term. Overall, during the three climate periods the extent of suitable habitat for rock ptarmigan above the current treeline is projected to decrease by 28.12%, 38.43% and 49.11% respectively. In contrast, the expected gain in suitable habitat due to the shift in the uppermost thermal limit will be severely restrained by the limited surface extension in the top portion of the Italian Alps. The presented approach can promote similar studies elsewhere in the globe, providing a regional perspective to the projection of climate change impact on bird species dwelling above the treeline.

Braking effect of climate and topography on global change-induced upslope forest expansion.

Forests are expected to expand into alpine areas due to global climate change. It has recently been shown that temperature alone cannot realistically explain this process and that upslope tree advance in a warmer scenario may depend on the availability of sites with adequate geomorphic/topographic characteristics. Here, we show that, besides topography (slope and aspect), climate itself can produce a braking effect on the upslope advance of subalpine forests and that tree limit is influenced by non-linear and non-monotonic contributions of the climate variables which act upon treeline upslope advance with varying relative strengths. Our results suggest that global climate change impact on the upslope advance of subalpine forests should be interpreted in a more complex way where climate can both speed up and slow down the process depending on complex patterns of contribution from each climate and non-climate variable.

Planning for assisted colonization of plants in a warming world.

Assisted colonization is one way of facilitating range shifts for species that are restricted in their ability to move in response to climate change. Here we conceptualize and apply a new decision framework for modelling assisted colonization of plant species prior to in situ realization. Three questions were examined: a) Is species translocation useful in a certain area? b) where, and c) how long will it be successful in the future? Applying our framework to Carex foetida in Italy at the core of its distribution and its southern edge revealed that assisted colonization could be successful in short-term (2010-2039) climate conditions, partially in medium (2040-2069) but not in long-term (2070-2099) scenarios. We show that, for some species, it is likely that assisted colonization would be successful in some portions of the recipient site under current and short-term climate conditions, but over the mid- and long-term, climate changes will make species translocation unsuccessful. The proposed decision framework can help identify species that will need different conservation actions (seed banks and/or botanical gardens) when assisted colonization is unlikely to be successful. Furthermore it has broad applicability, as it can support planning of assisted migration in mountainous areas in the face of climate change.

Sustainability at the local scale: defining highly aggregated indices for assessing environmental performance. The province of Reggio Emilia (Italy) as a case study.

In order to achieve improved sustainability, local authorities need to use tools that adequately describe and synthesize environmental information. This article illustrates a methodological approach that organizes a wide suite of environmental indicators into few aggregated indices, making use of correlation, principal component analysis, and fuzzy sets. Furthermore, a weighting system, which includes stakeholders' priorities and ambitions, is applied. As a case study, the described methodology is applied to the Reggio Emilia Province in Italy, by considering environmental information from 45 municipalities. Principal component analysis is used to condense an initial set of 19 indicators into 6 fundamental dimensions that highlight patterns of environmental conditions at the provincial scale. These dimensions are further aggregated in two indices of environmental performance through fuzzy sets. The simple form of these indices makes them particularly suitable for public communication, as they condensate a wide set of heterogeneous indicators. The main outcomes of the analysis and the potential applications of the method are discussed.